Just hours ago, the United States struck the Iranian island of Larak, killing several Iranian forces. Washington views its actions as preemptive, asserting that Tehran was preparing to mine parts of the Strait for the first time in weeks. Iran will most likely retaliate, and a new round of war cannot be ruled out.
Together with the fanfare around the sanctions regime, one can easily be left with the impression that Trump is looking to escalate. But dig a bit deeper and a different picture emerges: Trump seems to prefer a lower-intensity conflict - with neither major diplomatic events nor military escalation - until the midterm elections. That calculation may now be upended.
I write about this for Responsible Statecraft today, reposted in part below:
US strikes on Iran risk resuming a war Trump hoped to freeze
Trita Parsi
August 30, 2026
Responsible Statecraft
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/whats-next-iran-war/
Despite the excitement around Donald Trump’s new sanctions and even the US strikes against the Iranian island of Larak just hours ago, much suggests that Trump is not seeking a dramatic ratcheting up of pressure on Iran.
According to reports Sunday, the U.S. military hit Iranian launchers on the island to prevent Tehran from planting new mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first known U.S. strike against the country since Trump announced a ceasefire in July. Details are forthcoming.
Meanwhile, the much-touted “major financial institution” that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised to sanction for dealings with Iran turned out to be nothing more than Egypt’s second-largest bank. Though Banque Misr ranks among the region’s major banks, it is a dwarf beside the multi-trillion-dollar giants of global finance.
It should come as no surprise that there is more bark than bite in Trump’s latest sanctions moves. That is not to say Bessent’s economic warfare won’t hurt ordinary Iranians or squeeze the Iranian economy. It will. But there is little to suggest that the pain will compel Tehran to submit to Trump — or that the sanctions are even designed to inflict significant harm, despite his rhetoric.
Rather, Trump appears to be pursuing a very different gamble: maintaining a low-level conflict until the midterms—neither securing a diplomatic deal nor allowing the situation to deteriorate into full-scale war. A period of relative tranquility that pushes Iran out of the headlines and, in the run-up to the elections, weakens the connection between rising inflation and gas prices, on the one hand, and Trump’s foolish war of choice, on the other.
The D-Day sanctions help create the perception that the U.S. has the upper hand while increasing pressure on Iran. Together with increased traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, they make the status quo more costly for Tehran than for Washington — but not so costly that Iran is incentivized to counter-escalate in the short term.
Rather, it is a slow strangulation designed to ensure that, for the next two months, there is neither headline-grabbing diplomacy nor military escalation.
This gives Tehran little cause for immediate panic. Its response will largely depend on what Washington does next. I see three possible scenarios.
Trump may overshoot, pushing Iran beyond what Tehran deems manageable in the short term. For instance, the strikes against Iranian positions on Larak island will very likely generate an Iranian response. Moreover, if Trump confiscates Iranian oil tankers bound for China, Tehran will almost certainly respond by intensifying attacks on ships using the southern corridor of the Strait, while potentially also targeting energy infrastructure in the GCC. China, too, would likely respond forcefully to such a move. The result would be precisely the kind of escalation Trump wants to avoid over the next two months.
In the second scenario, the D-Day sanctions neither incentivize Iran to counter-escalate in the short term nor alter its medium-term calculations. Tehran reckons that, despite the hype, its closure of the Strait remains sufficient and that the mounting economic pressure on Trump will eventually compel him to return to the table with a more pragmatic posture.
Though this is not the most likely outcome, it helps explain why Iran is investing heavily in regional diplomacy even as all signs point to Trump not wanting a deal at this juncture.
Read the full piece here: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/whats-next-iran-war/
The US providing Iran with an opportunity to escalate…an unwise choice by Trump which should not surprise us
America’s return to war is a brutal misstep: Iran already has a lineup of targets it’s ready to smash, from Gulf infrastructure to the U.S. ships enforcing this shaky blockade. Those vessels are stuck in tight waters, easy to track, easy to hit, and Iran knows it. Every drone, missile, and fast‑boat strike is a message that Washington can’t control the Gulf by force.