The profound geopolitical implications of Iran's strikes on Israel

This is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country’s territory

The magnitude of what just happened may take some time to sink in.

This is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country’s territory (that is, not Iran).

This means that the battle lines have been moved.

Iran’s deterrence had already been restored in the sense that Israel knew that any strike on it would be responded to.

But now, Iran has proven that it will also respond to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, capacity, and willingness to put hard power against Israeli military maneuvers or aggression against a third party.

This will be particularly significant since Trump has signalled that he seeks to restrain Israel from continuing the escalation.

Trump reportedly told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that “Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate. If Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep going like the last 47 years, or the last 3000 years.” Trump also added: “We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now.”

Whether this would extend to Palestine is uncertain, but if it does, it may prove a game-changer.

Israel has been able to annex territory, commit genocide and war crimes without any real consequences because the West has refused to, and no regional power has had the hard power to impose costs on Israel.

If this equation changes, the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely take a significant turn.

Which is why Israel will do everything it can to disallow any shift.

From a US perspective, supporting Israel at this point recommits the US to its decades-long policy of seeking to sustain a balance in the region that allows for near-complete Israeli dominance.

That policy has been extremely costly to US interests, has destabilized the region, and enabled the Israelis to get increasingly aggressive and reckless (since they face no consequences for it).

However problematic it has been, it will become far more challenging and destabilizing going forward since sustaining Israel’s dominance will necessitate continued war with Iran. This clearly contradicts US interests.

If US interests were at the center of US policy, getting out of the Middle East and its regional rivalries would be a no-brainer.