The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming
Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.
I have a piece in Foreign Policy where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.
This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.
In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.
But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.
This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.
And then there is the Trump factor. His response to a second Israeli war with Iran may prove decisive. He appears unwilling to engage in a prolonged conflict. Politically, his initial strikes triggered a civil war within the MAGA movement. Militarily, the 12-day war exposed critical gaps in the United States’ missile stockpile. Both Trump and former U.S. President Joe Biden drained a substantial portion of U.S. air defense interceptors in a region that neither considers vital to core U.S. interests.
Yet by green-lighting the opening salvo, Trump has walked into Israel’s trap—and it’s unclear whether he can find a way out, especially if he clings to zero enrichment as the baseline for a deal with Iran. Limited engagement
is likely no longer an option. Trump will have to either fully join the war or sit it out. And staying out requires more than a one-time refusal—it demands sustained resistance to Israeli pressure, something he has so far shown neither the will nor the strength to pull off.
You can read the full piece here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/11/israel-iran-war-trump-nuclear-august-december/
'And then there is the Trump factor. His response to a second Israeli war with Iran may prove decisive. He appears unwilling to engage in a prolonged conflict.'
This is the million dollar question, Trita. The Democrats are moral absolutists and haven't adapted to the new multipolar political ecosystem. Trump has styled himself on being the sort of leader that the age calls for, one who can put ideology aside in favour of good sense, pragmatism and moral compromise.
Yet he seems wholly unwilling to push back against the lunacy of Zionist Israel. He is doing what needs to be done with Ukraine for the sake Ukraine itself, Europe, the world, and peace and security. Hopefully he can be stronger with Israel next time. He will have seen how badly backing the Zionists and ever more military adventurism is with his base.
More World War Sleaze self-fulfilling pseudo-prophetic antics -- as pointed out in Trita Parsi's book "Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the U.S.," Khomeini was funded by Tel Aviv against Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War: https://ia800301.us.archive.org/26/items/treacherous-alliance-trita-parsi/treacherous-alliance-trita-parsi.pdf