We just finished our tenth Q&A with paid subscribers earlier today and the question we kept going back to was: Will Iran launch preemptive strikes before the midterms?
Though talks are continuing in New York, the movement within these discussions has remained minimal. The US refuses to lift the blockade - or, at best, it will only lift it at the end of a process. In contrast, the Iranians insist on sequencing similar to earlier agreements: the blockade of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted more or less simultaneously in the opening phase of a deal.
Bottom line is that Trump feels that he has a winning hand: In his perception, the blockade is squeezing Iran while Tehran no longer can squeeze the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, time is on his side, and he is in no rush to make a deal or lift the blockade. (I disagree with this perception).
Moreover, the administration believes that the economic and political benefits of a deal - such as lower gas prices - wouldn’t come until months later, while the political cost of a deal and all the criticism Trump would be subjected to would be immediate. As a result, a deal before the midterms will likely be a net negative for Trump, the White House believes.
But as I explain in this Q&A, for the US side, talks still serve the purpose of making it more difficult for Tehran to launch preemptive strikes.
The video is available below for paid subscribers.
We will hold these sessions roughly every two weeks, but I will also schedule emergency sessions at your request.
