Are we on the verge of a US-Iran deal?
China is emerging as the silent, indispensable diplomatic power in the region
Nothing is confirmed and finalized yet, and the spoilers should not be underestimated, but lots of activity that points in the direction of a deal.
A few things stand out:
1. The role of China in the background is essential. Without having its fingerprints on the deal, and by that, avoiding any responsibility if it fails, China is emerging as the silent, indispensable diplomatic power in the region. (While Pakistan’s Asim Munir is traveling to Tehran, the Pakistani Prime Minister will be departing for Beijing shortly)
2. The regional involvement in the mediation is astounding: Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi and Oman are all or have all been playing an instrumental role in moving things forward. If a deal is reached, it will have regional buy-in (save from Israel and the UAE) at levels far beyond the JCPOA.
3. Regional diplomats and intel folks have been shuttling in and out of Tehran for weeks now. Qatar’s role, in particular, is noteworthy.
4. Europe’s absence is noticeable but not felt, as its irrelevance is becoming normalized.
5. More ships have been passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether these were mainly tankers going to China, and whether China paid a fee, is unclear at this point. But it is noteworthy that the ships are passing through both the Iranian AND the American “blockades.”
6. Though some distance remains to reaching a deal, my own conversation with folks on both sides has left me slightly more optimistic, primarily because of the flexibility I am detecting on the Iranian side regarding the stockpile (despite the Reuters story from yesterday). Ideas that were categorically rejected two weeks ago are now being genuinely considered.
7. If a deal is secured, Trump will face a lot of criticism from the Blob and the pro-Israel crowd in DC, but he will be in a very good position to sell the deal to the American public, whose concerns are very different from those of the Blob...
If you genuinely believe this will be a real and lasting deal you are absolutely delusional. Both the us and Israel want this government gone and a vassal broken state in Iran and this round of talks is just another clown show run by real estate clowns to cool off the market until the next round. And if the Iranians who’ve already been fooled many times buy it, then they don’t deserve to be where they are.
Encouraging. May peace preavil !